Connor Heyward Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Connor Heyward

NFL · Player Props

Connor Heyward

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Touchdowns

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 7:57 PM EST

Analysis

Connor Heyward Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1567/-2226).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is suggested by the Raiders being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
The model projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.

Favors Under

Right now, the 8th-most run-oriented team in football near the goal line (46.8% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Las Vegas Raiders have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 52.8 plays per game.
Opposing offenses teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the New Orleans Saints, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 28.9 per game) since the start of last season.
The Las Vegas offensive line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Since the start of last season, the formidable New Orleans Saints defense has conceded a puny 0.32 passing TDs per game to opposing tight ends: the 4th-best rate in the league.

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