Connor Heyward Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Connor Heyward

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Touchdowns

Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 3:27 PM EST

Analysis

Connor Heyward Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1478/-2021).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +1792 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +1478.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in the league versus the Dolphins defense last year (74.6% Adjusted Completion%).
Last year, the weak Dolphins defense has been gouged for a whopping 0.47 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing tight ends: the 9th-highest rate in the league.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Raiders, who are favored by 3 points.
Our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 3rd-most run-heavy offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 49.0% red zone run rate.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Raiders are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 61.0 offensive plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
The 4th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Raiders last year (a lowly 52.4 per game on average).
When talking about air yards, Connor Heyward ranks in just the 17th percentile among TEs last year, with just 2.0 per game.