Connor Heyward Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Connor Heyward

NFL · Player Props

Connor Heyward

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 3, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Connor Heyward Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Steelers offense to be the quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.02 seconds per snap.
Our trusted projections expect Connor Heyward to accumulate 3.9 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 77th percentile when it comes to TEs.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point gain in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Connor Heyward has been more heavily utilized in his offense's pass attack.
The Titans pass defense has given up the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.3%) to TEs this year (78.3%).
The Tennessee Titans linebackers project as the 5th-worst unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on running than their normal game plan.
In regards to pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year.
Connor Heyward's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 81.3% to 67.7%.

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