Connor Heyward Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Connor Heyward

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Connor Heyward Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Steelers are predicted by our trusted projection set to call 65.9 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may decline.
Connor Heyward's 8.6% Target Share this year shows a meaningful improvement in his pass game utilization over last year's 2.8% figure.
Connor Heyward has notched significantly more air yards this season (17.0 per game) than he did last season (6.0 per game).
This year, the deficient Green Bay Packers defense has allowed the 9th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing TEs: a staggering 7.75 yards.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (a measly 54.5 per game on average).
Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Green Bay Packers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 34.1 per game) this year.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year.
Connor Heyward's 67.5% Adjusted Catch Rate this year marks a substantial reduction in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 81.3% mark.