Colt McCoy TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 17

NFL · Player Props

Colt McCoy

QB · Arizona Cardinals

TD Passes

Atlanta Falcons vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 17, 2022

Updated Dec 30, 2022 8:01 PM EST

Analysis

Colt McCoy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+165/-220).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -220.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be rolling out backup QB Colt McCoy in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cardinals are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 63.1 plays per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 54.6% red zone pass rate.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line has allowed their QB just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Arizona Cardinals have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.