Colt McCoy TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Colt McCoy

NFL · Player Props

Colt McCoy

QB · Arizona Cardinals

TD Passes

Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Colt McCoy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+200/-265).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +198 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback TEXT1 this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 55.0% red zone pass rate.
Colt McCoy has attempted just 21.5 throws per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 21st percentile among QBs.
Colt McCoy's passing precision has tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 72.8% to 69.5%.
Colt McCoy has been among the bottom TD throwers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a paltry 0.40 per game while grading out in the 13th percentile.
The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the 2nd-least TDs through the air in the league: 0.92 per game this year.

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