Cole Kmet Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Touchdowns

Chicago Bears vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 12:07 PM EST

Analysis

Cole Kmet Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+574/-869).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears may throw the ball less in this week's game (and hand the ball off more) given that they be rolling out backup QB Tyson Bagent.
The most plays in football have been run by the Bears since the start of last season (a colossal 61.2 per game on average).
In regards to air yards, Cole Kmet ranks in the towering 79th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accruing a superb 25.0 per game.
The Chicago O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Since the start of last season, the weak Jets defense has been gouged for a whopping 0.50 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing tight ends: the 8th-largest rate in the league.

Favors Under

A running game script is implied by the Bears being a 3.5-point favorite this week.
The model projects the Bears as the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 6th-most run-focused team in the NFL in the red zone (47.0% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Bears.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 124.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Cole Kmet has been has not been looked to very often his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks in the 1st percentile when it comes to TEs.

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