Cole Kmet Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Touchdowns

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 28, 2026 8:07 PM EST

Analysis

Cole Kmet Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+700/-770).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears will be forced to start backup QB Case Keenum in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
A throwing game script is indicated by the Bears being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 129.0 plays on offense called: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.
The 2nd-most plays in football have been called by the Chicago Bears since the start of last season (a monstrous 61.1 per game on average).
Cole Kmet has accumulated a monstrous 26.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 79th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 57.3% pass rate.
Cole Kmet has been has not been looked to very often his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which places him in the 1st percentile among TEs.
With a feeble 66.3% Adjusted Catch Rate (9th percentile) since the start of last season, Cole Kmet ranks as one of the most unreliable receivers in football when it comes to TEs.
Since the start of last season, the daunting Philadelphia Eagles defense has conceded a feeble 64.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the best rate in football.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has conceded the fewest touchdowns through the air in football to tight ends: 0.21 per game since the start of last season.

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