Cole Kmet Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Touchdowns

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Cole Kmet Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+488/-567).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 2nd-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Chicago Bears since the start of last season (a massive 60.7 per game on average).
When it comes to air yards, Cole Kmet ranks in the towering 80th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accruing a colossal 28.0 per game.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Chicago Bears grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the fierce Minnesota Vikings run defense has yielded a mere 0.72 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing squads: the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is implied by the Bears being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 49.3% of their chances: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to be the 4th-most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 46.5% red zone run rate.
The weather report calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: fewest in the NFL.

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