Cole Kmet Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Touchdowns

Carolina Panthers vs Chicago Bears · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 1:37 PM EST

Analysis

Cole Kmet Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+490/-530).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Chicago Bears to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The most plays in the league have been called by the Chicago Bears last year (a monstrous 60.7 per game on average).
Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally lead to better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume.
Cole Kmet has accrued a monstrous 27.0 air yards per game last year: 79th percentile among tight ends.
The Chicago offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the 11th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 8th-most run-oriented offense in football near the goal line (46.6% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Bears.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Panthers, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.8 per game) last year.
Cole Kmet checks in as one of the worst possession receivers in football among tight ends, hauling in just 66.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 8th percentile.

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