Cole Kmet Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 12:12 PM EST

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +163 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears may throw the ball less in this week's game (and hand the ball off more) given that they be rolling out backup QB Tyson Bagent.
The most plays in football have been run by the Bears since the start of last season (a colossal 61.2 per game on average).
With an impressive 62.0% Snap% (78th percentile) this year, Cole Kmet places as one of the running backs with the highest volume in the NFL.
The Chicago O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Since the start of last season, the deficient New York Jets pass defense has given up a staggering 76.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 10th-largest rate in football.

Favors Under

A running game script is implied by the Bears being a 3.5-point favorite this week.
The model projects the Bears as the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 124.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
With a bad 64.9% Adjusted Catch Rate (10th percentile) since the start of last season, Cole Kmet rates as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to tight ends.