Cole Kmet Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 28, 2026 8:07 PM EST

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-144).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +104 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -144.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears will be forced to start backup QB Case Keenum in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
A throwing game script is indicated by the Bears being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 129.0 plays on offense called: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.
The 2nd-most plays in football have been called by the Chicago Bears since the start of last season (a monstrous 61.1 per game on average).
With a sizeable 62.9% snap rate (78th percentile) since the start of last season, Cole Kmet stands among the running backs with the highest volume in the league.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 57.3% pass rate.
With a feeble 66.3% Adjusted Catch Rate (9th percentile) since the start of last season, Cole Kmet ranks as one of the most unreliable receivers in football when it comes to TEs.
The Eagles pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.7%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (68.7%).