Cole Kmet Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+102/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 2nd-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Chicago Bears since the start of last season (a massive 60.7 per game on average).
With a high 62.5% snap rate (79th percentile) since the start of last season, Cole Kmet rates as one of the RBs with the highest volume in the league.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Chicago Bears grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Minnesota's safety corps has been awful since the start of last season, ranking as the worst in football.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is implied by the Bears being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 49.3% of their chances: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The weather report calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: fewest in the NFL.
With a lackluster 66.1% Adjusted Catch Rate (7th percentile) since the start of last season, Cole Kmet rates as one of the worst possession receivers in football when it comes to TEs.