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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.3 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.3 plays per game.

The predictive model expects Cole Kmet to accrue 4.3 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 80th percentile among TEs.

With a remarkable 4.9 adjusted catches per game (95th percentile) since the start of last season, Cole Kmet places as one of the best pass-catching TEs in the NFL.

Cole Kmet's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 83.1% to 90.6%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 55.8% of their opportunities: the 11th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Cole Kmet's 35.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 41.2.

The Bears offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

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