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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Houston Texans vs Chicago Bears

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is implied by the Bears being a -3-point underdog in this week's game.

The Bears rank as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 66.1% pass rate.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.0 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

Cole Kmet is positioned as one of the top pass-catching tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 4.6 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 93rd percentile.

With an impressive 83.3% Adjusted Completion Rate (94th percentile) since the start of last season, Cole Kmet stands as one of the most reliable receivers in the league when it comes to tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Texans, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 32.3 per game) since the start of last season.

While Cole Kmet has accounted for 19.5% of his team's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be a less important option in Chicago's passing offense in this game at 10.5%.

The Chicago offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all air attack metrics across the board.

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