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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Bears, who are heavy -9.5-point underdogs.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 63.3% of their plays: the 4th-highest clip among all teams this week.

The Bears have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.3 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Detroit Lions defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Bears to call the 5th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

Cole Kmet has been a much smaller part of his team's passing offense this year (14.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (20.4%).

Cole Kmet's receiving talent has declined this season, accumulating just 3.9 adjusted receptions vs 4.9 last season.

This year, the tough Detroit Lions defense has yielded a mere 63.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 2nd-best rate in the league.

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Detroit's safety corps has been fantastic this year, profiling as the best in football.

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