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Cole Kmet
NFL · Player Props
Cole Kmet
TE · Chicago Bears
Receptions
Los Angeles Chargers vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2023 Updated Oct 29, 2023 11:26 PM UTC
NFL Props Cole Kmet Receptions

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+150/-194).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +154 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +150.

Favors Over
  • The Chicago Bears may take to the air less in this contest (and call more carries) as a result of being be rolling with backup quarterback Tyson Bagent.
  • The Bears are a heavy 8.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
  • The leading projections forecast Cole Kmet to total 5.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • Cole Kmet's 4.1 adjusted catches per game this season illustrates an impressive boost in his pass-catching talent over last season's 3.0 rate.
Favors Under
  • The projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • At the moment, the 5th-slowest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Bears.
  • With a RATE1-RATE2 point regression in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Cole Kmet has been used much less in his offense's pass attack.
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