Cole Kmet Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 11:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+150/-194).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +154 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears may take to the air less in this contest (and call more carries) as a result of being be rolling with backup quarterback Tyson Bagent.
The Bears are a heavy 8.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
The leading projections forecast Cole Kmet to total 5.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Cole Kmet's 4.1 adjusted catches per game this season illustrates an impressive boost in his pass-catching talent over last season's 3.0 rate.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 5th-slowest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Bears.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point regression in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Cole Kmet has been used much less in his offense's pass attack.

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