Cole Kmet Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+125/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears may throw the ball less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) because they be rolling out backup QB Tyson Bagent.
This week, Cole Kmet is projected by the projection model to find himself in the 88th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.6 targets.
Cole Kmet's receiving talent has gotten a boost this year, averaging 4.1 adjusted receptions vs a mere 3.0 last year.
Cole Kmet's receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 74.3% to 77.8%.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has been gouged for the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (78.2%) vs. TEs this year (78.2%).

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Bears to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have just 120.4 total plays run: the lowest number among all games this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Las Vegas Raiders, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.2 per game) this year.
Cole Kmet's 72.1% Route% this year conveys a an impressive diminishment in his air attack utilization over last year's 84.0% mark.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year.

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