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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+145/-175).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -175.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.

In this game, Cole Kmet is forecasted by the projection model to position himself in the 88th percentile among tight ends with 5.4 targets.

Cole Kmet's receiving skills have improved this season, accumulating 4.4 adjusted receptions compared to a mere 3.0 last season.

As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Washington's unit has been awful this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The projections expect the Bears to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Bears have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.8 plays per game.

Cole Kmet has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (71.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (84.0%).

Since the start of last season, the daunting Washington Commanders defense has surrendered a feeble 67.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL.

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