Cole Kmet Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 6, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+145/-175).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
In this game, Cole Kmet is forecasted by the projection model to position himself in the 88th percentile among tight ends with 5.4 targets.
Cole Kmet's receiving skills have improved this season, accumulating 4.4 adjusted receptions compared to a mere 3.0 last season.
As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Washington's unit has been awful this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Bears to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Bears have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.8 plays per game.
Cole Kmet has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (71.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (84.0%).
Since the start of last season, the daunting Washington Commanders defense has surrendered a feeble 67.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL.

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