Cole Kmet Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-140/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +112 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The model projects Cole Kmet to earn 5.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 19.8% since the start of last season, which places him in the 96th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Cole Kmet has been among the top TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 3.1 receptions per game while grading out in the 83rd percentile.
When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Denver's unit has been terrible since the start of last season, projecting as the worst in football.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 50.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Bears have called the fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 52.9 plays per game.

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