Cole Kmet Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 28, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-169/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -141 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -169.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
This week, Cole Kmet is predicted by the predictive model to slot into the 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.5 targets.
Cole Kmet's pass-catching performance gotten better this year, compiling 4.9 adjusted catches compared to just 3.0 last year.
Cole Kmet's 83.3% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a noteworthy growth in his receiving talent over last year's 74.3% figure.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bears to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by our trusted projection set to run just 62.5 total plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
Cole Kmet has run fewer routes this year (72.7% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (84.0%).
The Minnesota Vikings safeties rank as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

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