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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Houston Texans vs Chicago Bears

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-119/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -119.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is implied by the Bears being a -3-point underdog in this week's game.

The Bears rank as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 66.1% pass rate.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.0 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

When it comes to air yards, Cole Kmet grades out in the towering 82nd percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accruing a striking 30.0 per game.

With an exceptional 46.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (90th percentile) since the start of last season, Cole Kmet has been among the top tight ends in the pass game in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Texans, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 32.3 per game) since the start of last season.

While Cole Kmet has accounted for 19.5% of his team's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be a less important option in Chicago's passing offense in this game at 10.5%.

The Chicago offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all air attack metrics across the board.

With a poor 3.82 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (18th percentile) since the start of last season, Cole Kmet has been among the best pass-game TEs in football in the open field.

Since the start of last season, the imposing Texans defense has yielded the 8th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing TEs: a puny 7.0 yards.

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