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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Chicago Bears vs Tennessee Titans

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

Cole Kmet has put up a colossal 34.0 air yards per game last year: 85th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Cole Kmet profiles as one of the top tight ends in the pass game last year, averaging a stellar 48.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 90th percentile.

Cole Kmet checks in as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a remarkable 83.1% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, checking in at the 88th percentile.

Cole Kmet rates as one of the most effective receivers in the league among tight ends, averaging an impressive 8.24 adjusted yards-per-target last year while ranking in the 81st percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bears are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bears to pass on 54.8% of their downs: the 6th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

While Cole Kmet has earned 20.6% of his team's targets in games he has played last year, the model projects him to be a much smaller piece of Chicago's passing offense in this game at 9.7%.

The Chicago Bears O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

The Tennessee Titans defense has conceded the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 39.0) to TEs last year.

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