Cole Kmet Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Cole Kmet has run a route on 84.0% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to garner 3.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
Cole Kmet has accrued a whopping 32.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among tight ends.
Cole Kmet has been among the leading pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 32.0 yards per game while grading out in the 80th percentile.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has yielded the 5th-highest Completion% in football (76.1%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (76.1%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 118.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 52.9 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.33 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the NFL.

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