Cole Kmet Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-104/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Cole Kmet's sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 68.2% to 72.8%.
Cole Kmet's pass-game efficiency has been refined this year, compiling 8.06 yards-per-target vs a mere 6.95 mark last year.
Cole Kmet's ability to pick up extra yardage has improved this season, compiling 7.71 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 3.97 figure last season.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-highest Completion% in the league (84%) versus TEs this year (84.0%).

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 41.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 123.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

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