Cole Kmet Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a big 8.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Cole Kmet has run a route on 83.7% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to total 5.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among TEs.
Cole Kmet has been among the leading TE receiving threats this year, averaging a stellar 31.0 yards per game while grading out in the 78th percentile.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 42.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 124.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

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