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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 9

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins

Cole Kmet Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+440/-1011).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1000 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1011.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

Cole Kmet has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 21.1% this year, which puts him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.

Cole Kmet's sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 68.2% to 72.8%.

The Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-highest Completion% in the league (84%) versus TEs this year (84.0%).

The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the 6th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 123.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.

The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Cole Kmet has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this season (22.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).

Cole Kmet's 28.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 38.7.

More Cole Kmet Player Props

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