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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 4

New York Giants vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Cole Kmet Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+419/-927).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +430 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +419.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing game near the goal line this week (17.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
  • Cole Kmet has put up a whopping 40.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among tight ends.
  • Cole Kmet's 37.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 90th percentile for TEs.
  • The New York Giants linebackers grade out as the 5th-worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
  • The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • Cole Kmet's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 68.2% to 41.5%.
  • Cole Kmet grades out in the 1st percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.
  • The New York Giants defense has conceded the 9th-least touchdowns through the air in football to tight ends: 0.30 per game since the start of last season.

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