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Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 12

New York Jets vs Chicago Bears

Cole Kmet Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+393/-828).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -766 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -828.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.

Cole Kmet has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 20.0% this year, which ranks in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.

Cole Kmet's 36.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 89th percentile for TEs.

Cole Kmet's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 68.2% to 74.1%.

Cole Kmet grades out in the 95th percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.45 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.6 plays per game.

Cole Kmet has put up quite a few less air yards this year (29.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).

The New York Jets defense has given up the least touchdowns through the air in the league to TEs: 0.00 per game this year.

The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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