Cole Kmet Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Cole Kmet

NFL · Player Props

Cole Kmet

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Cole Kmet Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+325/-450).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
Cole Kmet has been a key part of his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 26.9% this year, which ranks in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
Cole Kmet's 36.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 87th percentile for TEs.
Cole Kmet's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 68.2% to 74.2%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.1 plays per game.
Cole Kmet has totaled quite a few less air yards this season (30.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
The Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered the 3rd-least touchdowns through the air in football to tight ends: 0.10 per game this year.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.

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