Colby Parkinson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Colby Parkinson

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 12, 2026 8:17 PM EST

Analysis

Colby Parkinson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+292/-317).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Rams this year (a massive 62.5 per game on average).
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Bills defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (38.5 per game) this year.
Colby Parkinson has been a key part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 14.3% this year, which ranks him in the 78th percentile among tight ends.
With an outstanding ratio of 0.40 per game through the air (90th percentile), Colby Parkinson places among the leading receiving TD-scorers in the NFL among tight ends since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a running game script.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Rams to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.3 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
Colby Parkinson's 8.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 21.2.
Colby Parkinson's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 76.9% to 62.1%.