Colby Parkinson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Colby Parkinson

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Touchdowns

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 7:57 PM EST

Analysis

Colby Parkinson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+405/-500).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.
Colby Parkinson ranks in the 91st percentile among TEs as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging an excellent 0.42 per game.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams rank as the 4th-most run-centric offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 60.0% red zone run rate.
Los Angeles's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats decreased) on account of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with windier weather in this game.
While Colby Parkinson has been responsible for 23.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the leading projections forecast him to be a much smaller part of Los Angeles's passing attack near the goal line in this contest at 17.9%.
Since the start of last season, the tough Denver Broncos defense has yielded a puny 66.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL.
The Denver Broncos defense has surrendered the 4th-fewest receiving touchdowns in the league to tight ends: 0.32 per game since the start of last season.