Colby Parkinson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Colby Parkinson

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 10, 2026 8:42 PM EST

Analysis

Colby Parkinson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+454/-565).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -565.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Rams as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel last year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (34.1 per game) last year.
With an impressive rate of 0.47 per game through the air (92nd percentile), Colby Parkinson ranks among the best receiving TD-scorers in the league when it comes to TEs last year.
Last year, the feeble 49ers defense has allowed a whopping 0.59 receiving TDs per game to opposing TEs: the 6th-biggest rate in the NFL.
The 49ers safeties project as the 4th-worst safety corps in the NFL last year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The model projects the Rams to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially too high (and running stats decreased) in light of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather in this week's contest.
The predictive model expects Colby Parkinson to be a much smaller piece of his team's pass attack near the end zone in this contest (14.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been last year (23.4% in games he has played).
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (70.5%) versus TEs last year (70.5%).