Clyde Edwards-Helaire Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-117/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire's skills in generating extra yardage have been refined this year, notching 10.67 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 8.47 mark last year.
This year, the poor Patriots pass defense has yielded a staggering 89.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the highest rate in the NFL.
This year, the weak Patriots defense has given up the 10th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing running backs: a massive 6.22 yards.
The Patriots safeties grade out as the 9th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been less involved as a potential target this season (15.1% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (26.9%).
When it comes to air yards, Clyde Edwards-Helaire ranks in just the 17th percentile among RBs this year, totaling just -2.0 per game.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire's 6.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season conveys a substantial drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last season's 17.0 figure.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 75.7% to 67.0%.