C.J. Stroud Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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C.J. Stroud

NFL · Player Props

C.J. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 3:37 PM EST

Analysis

C.J. Stroud Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+614/-669).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Texans to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 60.2% red zone pass rate.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL vs. the Chargers defense this year (73.6% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

A running game script is indicated by the Texans being a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.
The predictive model expects C.J. Stroud to be much more involved in his team's ground game near the goal line in this week's game (9.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.7% in games he has played).
The Houston Texans O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all pass game stats across the board.
C.J. Stroud has run for 0.14 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the league among quarterbacks (79th percentile).

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