C.J. Stroud TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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C.J. Stroud

NFL · Player Props

C.J. Stroud

QB · Houston Texans

TD Passes

Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

C.J. Stroud TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-165/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.0 plays per game.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
In averaging a colossal 37.0 pass attempts per game this year, C.J. Stroud ranks among the top QBs in football (78th percentile) in this respect.
With an outstanding rate of 1.73 per game (81st percentile), C.J. Stroud stands as one of the best touchdown passers in the NFL this year.
This year, the weak Denver Broncos defense has given up a whopping 74.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 4th-worst rate in football.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.
The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 53.8% red zone pass rate.
The predictive model expects the Texans to call the 5th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
C.J. Stroud is positioned as one of the least accurate quarterbacks in the league this year with a 62.9% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 23rd percentile.

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