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Christian Watson

Christian Watson Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Christian Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +125 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (54.4% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Green Bay Packers.

The model projects the Packers to be the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.69 seconds per play.

The Vikings defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (36.7 per game) since the start of last season.

Christian Watson slots into the 75th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) with a massive 48.2 mark since the start of last season.

In regards to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Packers grades out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a 5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) usually lead to worse passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.

With a subpar 57.3% Adjusted Completion% (12th percentile) since the start of last season, Christian Watson rates among the most unreliable receivers in football among WRs.

The Vikings linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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