Christian Watson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Christian Watson

NFL · Player Props

Christian Watson

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The predictive model expects Christian Watson to garner 6.9 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 75th percentile among WRs.
This year, the weak Vikings pass defense has allowed a monstrous 77.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the biggest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Green Bay Packers have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.2 plays per game.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Vikings, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 34.0 per game) this year.
Christian Watson's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 65.3% to 46.1%.
The Vikings safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

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