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Christian Watson

Christian Watson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Christian Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (+100/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (54.4% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Green Bay Packers.

The model projects the Packers to be the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.69 seconds per play.

The Vikings defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (36.7 per game) since the start of last season.

When talking about air yards, Christian Watson ranks in the towering 87th percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 83.0 per game.

Christian Watson slots into the 75th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) with a massive 48.2 mark since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a 5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) usually lead to worse passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.

With a subpar 57.3% Adjusted Completion% (12th percentile) since the start of last season, Christian Watson rates among the most unreliable receivers in football among WRs.

With a bad 2.55 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (11th percentile) since the start of last season, Christian Watson rates among the best wide receivers in the NFL in the NFL in picking up extra yardage.

This year, the daunting Vikings pass defense has conceded the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing wide receivers: a mere 3.1 YAC.

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