Christian Watson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Christian Watson

NFL · Player Props

Christian Watson

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers have been the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.5% pass rate.
After accumulating 66.0 air yards per game last season, Christian Watson has posted big gains this season, now pacing 101.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point growth in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Christian Watson has been more prominently utilized in his team's passing game.
Christian Watson's skills in generating extra yardage have gotten better this season, accumulating 3.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 0.00 mark last season.
When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Los Angeles's unit has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Packers to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Green Bay Packers this year (a mere 53.9 per game on average).
Christian Watson's 33.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year marks a noteworthy decrease in his receiving proficiency over last year's 43.0 figure.
Christian Watson's 44.0% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a substantial regression in his receiving ability over last year's 65.3% rate.

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