Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-112/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 72.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 58.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 10th-most run-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 40.8% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to earn 15.7 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has averaged 58.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (78th percentile).
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The San Francisco 49ers have used some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their plays since the start of last season (most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 57.1 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Christian McCaffrey has been a more important option in his team's offense this year, staying in the game for 74.5% of snaps vs just 60.0% last year.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 5th-least yards in the NFL (just 100 per game) against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.