Christian McCaffrey Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 11, 2024

Updated Nov 18, 2024 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-131/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +112 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the Seahawks defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
With an impressive 79.2% Route Participation% (100th percentile) since the start of last season, Christian McCaffrey ranks as one of the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in the NFL.
In this week's game, Christian McCaffrey is expected by the projections to land in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs with 6.5 targets.
Christian McCaffrey grades out as one of the leading running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 4.3 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 99th percentile.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is implied by the 49ers being a 6-point favorite in this game.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to pass on 53.5% of their chances: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to have just 127.3 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.
The Seahawks pass defense has conceded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (73.4%) versus RBs this year (73.4%).
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Seattle's collection of safeties has been tremendous this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the league.