Christian McCaffrey Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-129/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
This week, Christian McCaffrey is expected by the projections to position himself in the 97th percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.8 targets.
Christian McCaffrey is positioned as one of the best pass-catching RBs this year, averaging an excellent 4.0 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 99th percentile.
Christian McCaffrey's 88.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this year illustrates a material improvement in his pass-catching ability over last year's 85.1% figure.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has allowed the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (86.7%) versus running backs this year (86.7%).

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the 49ers being a heavy 11.5-point favorite in this game.
The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the 49ers to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 53.0 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game versus the Cardinals defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.

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