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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Eagles defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the most passes in football (43.0 per game) this year.

In this game, Christian McCaffrey is expected by the model to secure a spot in the 97th percentile among RBs with 5.9 targets.

Christian McCaffrey's play as a receiver has been refined this year, notching 4.4 adjusted catches vs a mere 3.1 last year.

Christian McCaffrey's 89.5% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a material growth in his receiving ability over last season's 85.1% mark.

This year, the feeble Eagles pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 86.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 6th-worst rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their usual approach.

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 56.1% of their downs: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the 49ers are projected by the projection model to call just 62.0 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.

The 49ers have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.

With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Christian McCaffrey has been used much less in his offense's passing game.

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