Christian McCaffrey Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Seahawks defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
In this game, Christian McCaffrey is anticipated by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs with 5.5 targets.
Christian McCaffrey's pass-catching performance gotten a boost this season, compiling 4.3 adjusted catches compared to a measly 3.1 last season.
Christian McCaffrey's 90.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this season indicates a substantial improvement in his receiving skills over last season's 85.1% figure.

Favors Under

With a 7-point advantage, the 49ers are heavily favored in this game, implying much more of a focus on running than their normal game plan.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the 49ers are expected by the predictive model to call only 62.6 total plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.5 plays per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Christian McCaffrey has been utilized much less in his offense's pass game.

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