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Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-180/+135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buccaneers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (39.6 per game) this year.

Our trusted projections expect Christian McCaffrey to accrue 5.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 98th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Christian McCaffrey's 4.2 adjusted catches per game this season illustrates a remarkable gain in his pass-catching talent over last season's 3.1 rate.

Christian McCaffrey's 88.8% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a significant boost in his receiving talent over last year's 85.1% rate.

This year, the porous Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 84.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 8th-worst rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme running game script is indicated by the 49ers being an enormous 13.5-point favorite in this game.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the 49ers to pass on 50.7% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.

The model projects this game to have the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 122.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The 49ers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 53.4 plays per game.

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

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