Christian McCaffrey Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+136/-174).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +134 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.48 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to total 5.6 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Christian McCaffrey has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 19.2% since the start of last season, which places him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has been among the top pass-game RBs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.7 receptions per game while ranking in the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Christian McCaffrey's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 92.8% to 75.5%.
The Arizona Cardinals linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.