Christian McCaffrey Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Christian McCaffrey

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 22, 2022 12:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +106 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 7th-most in football.
Christian McCaffrey has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (65.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (47.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to notch 6.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among RBs.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The 49ers are an enormous 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.
Christian McCaffrey's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 92.9% to 82.2%.

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