Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (39.6 per game) this year.
Our trusted projections expect Christian McCaffrey to accrue 5.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 98th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Christian McCaffrey has accumulated a whopping 4.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among RBs. (This may not sound like very many, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).
Christian McCaffrey has compiled many more adjusted receiving yards per game (42.0) this season than he did last season (25.0).
Christian McCaffrey's 88.8% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a significant boost in his receiving talent over last year's 85.1% rate.

Favors Under

An extreme running game script is indicated by the 49ers being an enormous 13.5-point favorite in this game.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the 49ers to pass on 50.7% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The model projects this game to have the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 122.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 49ers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 53.4 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.