Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Christian McCaffrey

RB · Carolina Panthers

Receiving TD

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Christian McCaffrey Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+374/-759).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -732 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -759.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.48 seconds per play.
Christian McCaffrey has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 16.1% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has put up a monstrous 7.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Christian McCaffrey's 31.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 100th percentile for running backs.
Christian McCaffrey grades out in the 75th percentile among running backs when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.10 per game.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Christian McCaffrey's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 92.8% to 75.5%.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has surrendered the 7th-least passing touchdowns in the league to RBs: 0.15 per game since the start of last season.
The Arizona Cardinals linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.